Monday, December 19, 2016

3 Lists in 18 Months

Fangraphs has gone from Kiley McDaniel to Dan Farnsworth to Eric Longenhagen in a short amount of time.  McDaniel made their site a TON more interesting, instead of the Dave Cameron drivel Kiley had insightful and humorous insight backed with some incredible research chops.  He went to the Braves.  Farnsworth was not well met, he didn't last long.  Longenhagen is busting out his lists early, so there have been 3 in 18 months.  Let's check them out and see how much the Giants have changed over that time.

McDaniel's April 2015 list is here.
Farnsworth's March 2016 list is here.
Longenhagen's October 2016 list is here.

Top 5:
McDaniel: Susac, Beede, Crick (space), Arroyo, Mella
Farnsworth:  Arroyo, Coonrod, Fox, Suarez, Beede
Longenhagen: Arroyo, Beede, Reynolds, Blach, Suarez

Susac graduated and then traded, Mella and Fox traded.  Reynolds a recent draftee not available for other lists.

Coonrod looks as the unreasonably high on guy, Crick has faceplanted but has been looked upon as a top 100 by the industry for several years.  Is there a guy who will stand out for Long?

6-10:
McD: Mejia, Okert, Blach, Garcia, Santos
Farns: Bickford, Shaw, Cole, Osich, Jordan Johnson
Long: Okert, Gregorio, Fabian, Stratton, Krook

Mejia, Santos, Bickford all traded.  Garcia hurt.  Cole and Jordan Johnson stand out as way overrated even though I like Cole.  Lots of love for hard throwing lefties, even though they are relievers.  I think Long might stand out as too high on Fabian, Stratton and Krook in the next year list, even if I do like Fabian and Krook.

11-15:
McD: Duffy, Blackburn, Strickland, Heston, Black
Farns: Blackburn, Parker, Chase Johnson, Mejia, Marshall
Long: Shaw, Jordan Johnson, Quinn, Duggar, Slania

McD was too low on Duffy!  I said it at the time to all.  Strickland graduated, Heston no-hit the Mets and got hurt and was recently released and traded.  Black is hurt as well.  Blackburn is running out of time, he's always been a scouts/stats argument but punching through AAA has been much more difficult than everybody thought.  Chase Johnson is a reliever, and I thought both Johnson's had too much hype.  Marshall had no business being ranked that high.  Parker graduated, sort of.  Duffy and Mejia got traded.  Quinn is a recent draftee.

16-20:
McD: Williamson, Ysla, Davis, Stratton, Chase Johnson
Farns: Santos, Black, Jalen Miller, Okert, Garcia
Long: CJ Hinojosa, Moronta, Adon, Miller, Garrett Williams

Williamson graduated.  Ysla and Santos traded.  Would you take Davis, Stratton or Johnson in the top 20 right now?  They might be able to squeeze into the top 30 for sure.  I think Miller is a long way off but the end of the top 20 is OK.

Last guy (21st): Kiley: Ryder Jones; Farns: Blach; Long: Coonrod

Cistulli's guy: Kiley (Adam Duvall - better listen!), Farns: DJ Snelten (I have liked him), Long: Miguel Gomez (sure can hit!  Finally got the promotion)

Fangraphs coverage has improved a lot.  I think they are definitely making an unbiased effort now.  Something that wasn't happening back in 2010-14.  Mainly its an exercise in learning the names.

But look at how many dudes get traded.  Also note how many lefties come into the lists (Suarez wasn't drafted yet for Kiley's list).   I do think falling in love with youth or trying to sniff out the IFA guy early has big chances of swinging and missing.   And I do think putting your faith in lefties is a nice way to hedge.

Finding Sleepers...

Minorleagueball is doing the discussion for the Giants (Thank you OGC for reminding me to go browse the interwebs)... 

Here's the current top 30 for the Giants from MLB.com (Mayo/Callis) - I really respect these two guys, they are generally pretty fair and they have a good track record of sticking with certain players (although I can't really get that jazzed about consistent top 30 guy Joan Gregorio)

Here's what I just put up at minorleagueball about the Giants group:

5 1st rounders (Arroyo #1 (25/2013), Beede #2 (14/2014), Shaw #3 (31/2015), Crick #25 (49 (1s)/2011, Stratton #26 (20/2012)). Traded Bickford (and Susac) for Smith.
3 2nd rounders (Reynolds #4 (59/2016), Garcia #6 (52/2014), Suarez #8 (86/2015) – Missing: Ryder Jones (64/2013) – Jones slashed 247/291/397 in full year at the Eastern in 2016) (as mentioned, Susac traded with Bickford).
4 3rd rounders (Jalen Miller #15 (95/2015), Dylan Davis #17 (87/2014), Chase Johnson #18 (101/2013), Heath Quinn #19 (95/2016)… This is interesting to me how bunched up these guys are in their list – all top 100 guys in each draft year. And Mac Williamson recently graduated off of prospect lists 2nd half of last season.
That’s 12 guys most drafted in the past 4 rounds except for Crick and Stratton. The only person not making the list would be 2nd rounder 2012 Martin Agosta and the guys who got traded. So is there heavy bias towards draft pick order? I don’t think any of these guys can be called sleepers.
4th round picks last 5 years: Matt Krook, Mac Marshall, Logan Webb, Brian Ragira, Steven Okert. (Okert and Krook made list, Ragira, Marshall and Webb have previously, now off. Ragira out of org.) Brandon Crawford 4th rounder 2008.
5th round picks last 5 years: Ryan Howard, Ronnie Jebavy, Sam Coonrod, Dan Slania, Ty Blach. (Coonrod, Blach, Jebavy made list, its possible that Howard and Slania are typical un-sexy Giants type sleepers – utility middle infield and pen arm that might be able to take bump). Brandon Belt 5th rounder 2009.
6th round picks last 5 years: Gio Brusa, Steven Duggar, Skyler Ewing, Nick VanderTuig, Stephen Johnson. (Josh Osich in 2011).
That’s 19 guys in the top 30 that are within this 6th round parameter, which roughly is within top 200 drafted every year.
Worth pointing out that Derek Law was a 9th rounder and Trevor Brown was a 10th rounder? Brown’s WAR scores won’t be much to look at but he does contribute to the 25.
The following guys are NOT within top 6 rounds (a/k/a "Sleepers"?): Ray Black (237th overall 2011), Austin Slater (238th overall 2014), Cory Taylor (246th overall 2015), CJ Hinojosa (336th overall 2015), Clayton Blackburn (507th overall 2011), Ian Gardeck (508th overall 2012), Jordan Johnson (688th overall 2014), Hunter Cole (778th overall 2014)
I guess the big parameter for identifying a sleeper would be outside the top 200 each draft class but maybe extend that past to the 11th round onwards. Hinojosa, Blackburn, Gardeck, Johnson and Cole qualify. Not sure I see any others right now.
I do think Matt Gage is an interesting Lefty, the Giants have challenged him a lot. He started 23 games in Richmond, 8.6 H/9, 2.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9 and a 3.38 ERA.
The Giants love Matt Winn. 14th rounder 2015 he got bumped to Richmond for org needs, then back to Augusta. 230/325/393 with apparent defensive chops and some pop.
Johah Arenado?
Cyr, Winn, Caleb Smith look like sleepers to me, but not top 20 types for sure.

The Giants are very lacking in IFA depth.  I think a lot of prospect hounds are looking at Sandro Fabian (DrB just ranked him #10 overall), there is definite national hype about Melvin Adon.  Adon is reaching back for 100 MPH as a starter... doubtful that keeps up but its interesting.  Besides those guys, its old favorite Gregorio.  Reyes Moronta.  Oft injured Kelvin Beltre.  Maybe lefty Sandro Cabrera.  Not a lot!  And no big names coming soon, as the Fox signing knocked em out of the box.

Lefties: In order of hype, I'll just list the Giants current cadre of lefties: Ty Blach, Andrew Suarez (buying!), Steven Okert, Josh Osich, Matt Krook, Garrett Williams, Mac Marshall, Matt Gage and Sandro Cabrera.  That's only NINE!  Can't even make a top ten list?  I'd go with CALEB SMITH as a sleeper pen guy.  So that's one of my sleepers for sure.

Righties: in order of hype: Beede, Gregorio (not buying!), Stratton (selling!), Jordan Johnson, Dan Slania, Sam Coonrod (a lot of scoff as a pen arm), Moronta, Adon, Ray Black, Clayton Blackburn (post hype post sleeper post hype sleeper?), Rodolfo Martinez...  Barely a top ten!  Crick?  (Selling!).  How about Cory Taylor?  I think folks should focus on TYLER CYR, again as a sleeper pen guy.3.56 K/BB, 6.7 H/9 and a stellar 10.9 K/9. 

OFs: I think this is where it gets interesting.  I think Quinn and Reynolds are both major sleepers in the fact they won't make any top 100 list.  You have Fabian (young! and a hacker!), Steven Duggar, Austin Slater, Hunter Cole (my guy!), Gio Brusa... I am stubbornly sticking with Ronnie Jebavy despite some bad K #s and a low BA.  Is there a top 10 list there?  Most likely if you squint a little more and get to Heyward, Dylan Davis and the like.

C: A lost year for Aramis Garcia.  He has a chance to really surprise this next year, but has lost a year of development due to facial fractures.  I do think that the next big thing might be Matt Winn.  The catching in the system looks a little lite right now - and the Greybeards love to draft themselves some catchers quite frequently.   Trading Susac away hurts that depth, and its why the former Bum Fonty gets signed to a minor league deal.

IF: Arroyo (Star??), Chris Shaw, CJ Hinojosa (the past two of mighty aggressive assignment - always something to watch with Los Gigantes), Jalen Miller (ah, sweet youth, always much appreciated in prospect list making land), Beltre, Vizcaino Jr... how about Kevin Rivera?  Didn't do too badly in S/S as a yoot!  Ryan Howard will get zero hype but some Greybeard really really likes him.  Ryder Jones?  Jonah Arenado?  Both might move off of 3B actually.  Is this a strong top ten list?  Do the Giants have enough utility middle infielders they always love?  I'd say NO, they don't. 

I actually can't find many sleepers right now.  Maybe the Giants are a little overhyped in that department, something I've always railed on the opposite.  I'd like to see more lefties, and more up the middle strength, although Reynolds if he sticks is a great CF prospect.  Arroyo shifting to 3B is more org need, but he's never been hyped as a SS anyways.  Garcia rebounding could change that outlook in a huge way.

Sleeper List:
Sandro Cabrera, 21 year old IFA LHP most likely pitching Augusta next season.
Caleb Smith, 24 year old 17th round 2014 LHP most likely pitching SJ next season.
Matt Gage, 23 year old 10th round 2014 LHP most likely pitching Richmond next season.
Tyler Cyr, 23 year old 10th round 2015 RHP most likely pitching Richmond next season.
Cory Taylor, 23 year old 8th rounder 2015 RHP most likely pitching SJ next season.
Hunter Cole, 24 year old 26th rounder 2014 OF/Util most likely playing Sacto next season.
Sandro Fabian, 20 year old IFA OF most likely playing Augusta next season.
Matt Winn, 24 year old 14th rounder 2015 C most likely playing SJ next season.
Kevin Rivera, 20 year old 14th rounder 2014 2B most likely playing Augusta next season.

I am honestly struggling to round out a top 10. 

This is a list that can't include top 7 rounds of the draft. 

Augusta to watch (maybe): Sandro Cabrera, Sandro Fabian, Kevin Rivera
SJ to watch (maybe): Matt Winn, Cory Taylor, Caleb Smith
Rich to watch (maybe): Matt Gage, Tyler Cyr
Sacto: Hunter Cole

Dan Slania put in a very good year.  I still like Jebavy but he has been drubbed by Duggar in the stat and promotion department.  Those guys are not hyped but are 7th rounders.  Duggar and Slater are both not really hyped by national guys, I'm curious because their stats are stellar.

Loved the drafting of Reyolds, Quinn, Krook and Williams last year. 

Giants need more IFA, more lefties, and more up the middle hitters.  And they don't look especially strong in RHP, despite the 3-4 guys who push 100 MPH.  Crick/Stratton are long in the tooth, not even trade throw-ins at this point.  All eyes on Beede and Arroyo it seems, most likely in Sacto.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Them Shiny Prospects for Los Gigantes...

Giants don't have a Lucas Giolito to trade (Adam Eaton - gamechanger?  Not seeing it personally - dWAR is overrated - hello Jason Heyward, the big contract platoon OF!  Eaton is a lot about control on the contract)

Giolito put up 71IP in the Big Bad Eastern last year: 8.5 H/9, 4.3 BB/9, 9.1 K/9 and a 3.17 ERA (2 HRs).  Tyler Beede pitched all year there, 147IP: 8.3 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, 8.2 K/9 and a 2.81 ERA (9 HRs).  Beede had an uptick in velocity and started striking out fools.  Very interested to see how it goes next year in the AAA launching pads.

It will also be interesting to see who goes with Beede to Sacto and who stays at Richmond.  Quietly Sam Coonrod and Andrew Suarez put up very nice numbers beside Beede after getting promoted.  All 3 took the bump 24 times, and were 2-3-4 in total IP for the Giants minors (Ty Blach led the way with 163IP). 

The other two big pitcher names who crack a lot of top 10 lists are Joan Gregorio and Jordan Johnson.  Nobody gave up more HRs than Johnson with 24, who was a sleeper hype last year.  He pitched all year in SJ, 5.32 ERA and a 10.0 H/9.  2nd?  Clayton Blackburn with 18.  3rd?  Joan G - with 14 - Gregorio had a stellar 10.2 K/9 and there is talk of him going to the pen.  Hard though because he's so tall repeating his delivery has always been an issue.

Summary of top 5 Starters: Beede, Coonrod and Suarez making good strides.  Johnson sputtered some, and Gregorio has always been more hype than performance.

Next 5: Chris Stratton!  Clayton Blackburn!  Chase Johnson!  5th starters?  Pen conversions?  Trade bait?  Trade bait! The most interesting move forward to me is Cory Taylor.  3 levels.  3.56 K/BB.  2.72 ERA.  23 times on the bump.  4 HRs in 119 innings.  Stingy!  Most of this is at Augusta though.  Sinker slider guy with big heat.  Maybe he gets the pen conversion and zooms.  And then there is... the fearsome Ty Blach!  Going to challenge Cain for the 5th starter.  I was at his masterpiece against Kershaw.  it was some fun, fun stuff.  Soft tossing lefties are awesome.  Just ask my son, he's one.

Sleeper: Matt Gage pitched all season at Richmond.  23 starts, 136IP, 3.38ERA, 8.6 H/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9.  Soft tossing lefties! 

Giants traded off: Bickford, Mejia, Santos and now Heston.  They still have a lot of depth. 

Relievers: Lets just assume you need big K numbers to thrive.  Who that going to be? 
Ray Black struck out 15.2/9 and had a H/9 of 4.9.  Wowza!  BB/9?  9.2.  Ouch.
Reyes Moronta had a K/9 of 14.2, BB/9 of 3.1 and H/9 of 6.6.  Yes!  Big fastball, big boy.  Richmond bound?
Steven Okert had a big K/9 and K/BB of 11.4 and 5.45.  His H/9 is high though: 10.1.  
Rodolfo Martinez has the biggest fastball besides Black.  His H/9 was 8.7, K/9 was 8.4 and BB/9 was 4.2.  These numbers were tilted by a struggle after promotion to Richmond.  His SJ numbers were pretty stellar. 
Sleeper: DJ Myers, Giants 15th rounder for 2016 out of UNLV had a nice rookie ball debut K'ing 52 in 58 innings and only walking 5.  He gave up 4 HRs! 

I hate to say it but I just don't see many good up and coming pen arms at the moment.  The Giants need some of their crew to really step up this year also.

Bats?  Steven Duggar his 302/388/448 across 2 levels.
Chris Shaw struggled in the Eastern and put up 267/335/484.  Shaw had 21 HRs, 2nd to Dylan Davis' 26 for the org in 2016. 
Austin Slater was 3rd with 18 in 2 levels.  He is sitting there pushing Mac/Parker right now, he slashed 305/393/500.

Draft picks: Brian Reynolds, Heath Quinn, Gio Brusa and Jacob Heyward all had very good debuts.

Not giving up on Hunter Cole or Ronnie Jebavy just yet.  Both struggled with consistency. 

Top prospect Arroyo slashed 274/316/373 in the Eastern.  Hey, he is younger than Crawford/Panik/Duffy were...  Still... a STAR?  Not sold.

Aramis Garcia coming back strong would boost the system.  He was my pick to zoom.  He got hurt instead. 

Definitely going to be fun to watch Reynolds and Quinn next year. 

As usual, the Giants have a much more interesting system than a superficial glace.  Is it a top prospect loaded type?  Nope.  And it won't be next year, with a 20th pick of the draft coming.  But there are surprises, and its possible that Williamson and Parker will make the next step and surprise as well.

Giants Up Against Luxury Tax... Because... Bumgarner

No more big moves coming from Los Gigantes (hey, Mark Melancon in the French Vanilla about four months late but better than never) says Bobby E.

Makes sense.  Cain comes off the books next year, but the Giants aren't letting Bumgarner get his options exercised.  There will be a brand new blue chip big contract coming.  And there should be.  Bumgarner and Posey are this franchise.  End of story.

Living in LA its hilarious the double coin of contempt and huge respect Doyers fans give Bumgarner.  I wear a Giants shirt out, grocery check will start talking to me about how the Dodgers have the wrong lefty to get over the hump.

So that rotation...  Giants are paying 23.5MM for Cueto, 20.8MM for Cain, 19.8 MM for Shark, 11.7MM for Bum and 7MM for Moore.  Those figures are rounded, and they are not accurate for luxury tax purposes (AAV including bonuses).  82.8MM or so invested in the pitching staff, starting division.

Posey is 22.2MM, plus his backups on the 40 will be another 1MM.  23.2MM or so in catching.

Infield: Craw is 8.2MM, Belt is 4MM, Panik is minimum, Gillaspie should be in the 1MM-2MM range.  Nunez will be more, possibly 2.5MM-4MM.  Adrianza (if he doesn't get injured) is 600K.  I'd like to see someone besides Adrianza, maybe this new Tampa Ray signee Calixte who was immediately added to the 40 so he didn't get poached.  And don't forget about scrapper Kelby Tomlinson...  Infield is looking to be 16-20MM depending on the 3B.

And wonderboy Christian Arroyo looms.  The Giants think he's going to be a STAR.  A star?  I'm not convinced.  But that's been their attitude from day 1 of drafting, they think he's big time and are trusting in Chuck K's judgement. 

Outfield: Pence is 18.5MM, Span is 11MM.  You don't have Angel Pagan to kick around anymore, are you happy now?  Gregor Blanco is also departed, one of the best 4th OFs to ever suit up in the French Vanilla.  The rest of the OF is going to be the minimum, that's the big story.  Parker, Gorkys, Mac Williamson.  Possibly Austin Slater.  OF will be about 31MM, give or take. 

So the position players are roughly 70-75MM.  Los Gigantes are investing as usual in the pitching side of things.

Pen: the signing of MM bumps everybody down a notch.  And this is a huge thing.  Despite what stat heads say, having defined roles is a huge psychological hill to climb.  Knowing who is coming in which inning relaxes the crew.  Giants fans are still reeling from that meltdown.  And it was huge, I love their chances in nervous Chicago with Cueto and Bumgarner.  Moore pitched an absolute gem.  Oh well, it wasn't meant to be. 

Strickland, Law, Kontos and Gearrin as the righties.  The lefties will be Will Smith and either Osich or Okert.  Maybe both.  Smith is the only one who costs more than the minimum now that Gearrin is in for 1MM.  Pen should be about 18-19MM and change unless Smith gets something bigger.  You add that to the starters and you have your 100MM staff.

The rest of the 40 takes the Giants very close to the cap.  They'll go over, but not by much.  They're in the 50% penalty after paying the past 2 years (small amounts). 

Cain comes off next year.  And Cueto has the opt out to worry about.  The Giants might be looking at re-negotiations on Johnny C, Bum and Moore at the same time.  Bumgarner's the one that they are saving major ducets for. 

So go draft some more OFs, stat!

I'd rather have Melancon than Chapman or Jensen personally.  Wish that trade went Los Gigantes way, he might have turned the tide.  Casilla has always been a better 8th inning guy anyways.  Derek Law should get first crack at the 8th inning.  It'd be nice to have a lefty to do it as well, but the scuttlebutt is that Smith is more of a 7th inning guy (expensive in shiny prospects for that type Bobby!).  Osich and Okert are still pretty raw. 

As last year... If the Giants make one more move I'd like another really good lefty to tie it all together.

PTBNL In the Heston Trade Contest

My prediction...

Kyle Schepel, 25 year old RHP

Hard one to predict right?

Hesto Presto pitched very well after putting on extra weight and adding a tic of velocity.  Then he battled injuries in 2016.  Hope he gets a chance to be the 5th starter in Seattle (a VERY nice place to catch a game btw... if they'd ever get a real team!)


Sunday, October 16, 2016

Disjointed Thoughts On A Painful Collapse Of A Season

Man I was at the October 1st game, it was awesome!  It really felt like the hometown heroes were getting their mojo back just in time to go rampage.

This entire second half has been very, very painful to watch, much less comment on.  As Giants fans we have become so spoiled by exciting winning baseball.  I always feel that fans are entitled to an exciting team, that the playoffs are a privilege not a right, and to just enjoy the ride.

That ride came to a crash last week.  Bruce Bochy looked tired.  If you can't get 3 outs with a 3 run lead... Do you really deserve to advance in the playoffs?

I have maintained all year that The Greybeards definitely have not been following the Bill Walsh maxim "Cut em loose one year early rather than one year late".  Losing Jeremy Affeldt turned out to be a big time blow.  I don't think the Giants started out the year right being lite on the lefties. 

I don't really want to remember Romo, Casilla and especially Lopez this way, I want to remember the good times.  But they looked extremely weak over a long stretch of the year, and it all came crashing down in high comedy/tragedy.

Lopez had a BB/9 of 5.1 on the year!  (Fellow lefty Josh Osich had a 4.7 - he was used heavily in the first half and faded in the 2nd half).  Draft acquisitions Will Smith and Matt Moore were also in the 4s (4.4 for Smith, 4.2 for Moore). 

Casilla was still an effective K pitcher, with a 10.1 K/9 and a 3.42 K/BB.  I still maintain he is an excellent, excellent 8th inning guy who just isn't cut out to be "the Man" in the 9th.  I wouldn't mind the Giants re-signing him and I doubt he wants to come back.

It seemed like Bochy just didn't have faith in any of these guys, and as the stories come out, it appears there was a lot of grousing, more than any other time in his career.

I'm glad that Roberto Kelly got the ax.  He was absolutely overmatched as 3B coach.  Some of those decisions were baffling, you cannot have somebody that unsure of their decisions out there. 

Hunter Strickland had a very good statistical year for the most part.  He led the G's in appearances with 72.   Only 4 longballs. 

I think Derek Law is the future.  I wish Bochy stuck with him for 2 more batters, who knows what would have happened.  5.56 K/BB led Los Gigantes. 

Giants had two absolute horses with Bum and Cueto.  The Shark signing looked good, until it didn't.  But I bet you didn't know that Bum gave up more gophers now did you?  26 to Shark's 24.  Matt Cain led the starters with a 1.6 HR/9.  I love Matt Cain, I was in favor of that contract, but he needs to go to the pen and try to salvage something for his last year.  Romo's stats looked good but he was gopher prone, 1.5 Hr/9. 

Overall 3 starters putting up 200 Plus innings was good stuff.  Hopefully Matt Moore can come on strong as the number 4 (maybe walking a few less, Dirty Matty!), and then you might have Ty Blach (what a performance against Kershaw - definitely a top 5 live game for me, it was electric) competing along with Suarez and Cain.  Or Blackburn.  Or Stratton. 

On the hitting side... I still miss Matt Duffy and wish him a quick recovery so he can get back to it next year.

I don't think many Giants will miss Angel Pagan in the locker room.  Fra-gi-le.  Span being platooned might be the way to go, he showed flashes of being a serious asset but definitely wore down.

Public support from the Greybeards for Mac and Jarrett Parker!  Interesting.

Conor Gillaspie was the best thing about the last two months, I hope he gets the contract.

I am really, really sick of seeing Ehire Adrianza on the 25.

Belt led the team with 655 PAs.  4 Gigantes topped 600: Belt, Span, Crawford and Posey.  The offense wasn't really the issue, although we can hope that Posey gets some rest and gets that back back in order for next year.  Bad beat injuries to Pence and Panik hurt, but that kind of stuff happens every year.  I really liked the professionalism that Trevor Brown brought to the table. 

Off the books?  Most likely.  Jake Peavy, Angel Pagan, Gregor Blanco, Javy Lopez, Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla.  All of those guys did great things that led to rings.  But they are also aging and were ineffective a lot of the time, especially crunch time.

Team needs: A real bonafide Closer!  Duh.  The Pirates wanted Taylor Hearn and Felipe Rivero for Mark Melancon.  Are we really serious this package couldn't be beat?  Really?

I do think the pen has some talent.  Giving up that many leads is truly terrible though, and it ended what should have been a Western Division title (the Bums have 4 in a row now you knows) and it ended the season painfully.  Its been a long time since JT Snow got gunned at the plate.  I think they need a combo of somebody outside to "be the man" and maybe another lefty reinforcement if that can be found.  I do think they didn't start the season with enough lefty goodness.

I don't know what else.  Switch Pence to LF?  Get a "Big Bat"?  I just don't see it.  Maybe trade Nunez for something?  That guy turned out to be a pretty big bust, even if the price was relatively low in prospect goodness.  I'd rather have a good lefty than Nunez next year.  But on the flip side... The Giants have no stolen base threats.  Maybe they need to look in that direction - get a true leadoff guy?  Only 3 Gigantes with a OBP over 350 - Belt at 394, Posey at 362 and Pence despite swinging at every slider off the plate tweaked out 357.  An OF who can get on base by any means necessary seems like a better call than a "big bat".  Giants did get 10 HRs plus from every position (3B being a combo).  They had nobody breaking the 80s in runs scored or ribeyes though. 

They have 2-4 years left in this window most likely.  Time to re-load, re-tweak and go fight the good fight. 

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Check In On The Farm As The Minor League Season Winds Down

Hitters
Best debuts from 2016 draftees:
100 PAs now for Jacob Heyward, he's got a 360/510/653 slash with the big caveat its rookie ball and he's a college guy.  5 triples!  Dude can fly.  7/9 in SBs.  This is exciting, some value drafting from the Monks.  Lets see where he goes next.

Heath Quinn is raking big time.  343/437/537 in 158 PAs, the vast majority at S/S S/K.  4 HRs, 11 2Bs, 3 SBs.  Quinn was a steal in the 3rd, I think most prospect hounds would be happy with him in the 2nd round.  Looks like a future RF.

The 2nd rounder who might have been a 1st round talent, Bryan Reynolds is hitting 306/379/514 with S/S S/K.  4 HRs, 9 2Bs, 2 Sbs.  Reynolds is at 9BB/30K.  Quinn is at 16BB/26K.

Best Hitting Promotions
Steven Duggar through SJ and Richmond is at 300/386/452 and has the honor of most hits in the minors this year so far with 121.  Good K/BB ratio of 58BB/88Kin 466 PAs, he has 9 HRs and a system high 7 3Bs.  11/23 SB doesn't look so hot though for the speedy OF.

Miguel Gomez takes his bat to SJ after raking Augusta, his slash is 346/378/507, 16BB/32K in 358 PAs equals an extreme contact oriented approach.  Gomez future position is an unknown but the ability to hit is certainly there.

Dylan Davis may be slow starting, but he's now in SJ as well after another stint in Augusta, he's got a slash line of 289/358/508 with 17 HRs (2nd in system to Chris Shaw).

The IFAs!  Sandro Fabian is at 100 PAs, he has a 326/360/533 slash with 20Ks and 4BBs, 2 HRs and apparently a very nice bat flip.   Playing rookie ball this year as an 18 year old.  Definite watch.  Ricardo Genoves has slowed down some, he's hitting 274/358/345 in the DSL in 168 ABs, with 17BB and 30K.  Another IFA catcher has emerged, Angeddy Almanzar is hitting 311/385/452 with 4 HRs, 18BB and 35K in 177 ABs.

Christian Arroyo?  The guy who the Giants stubbornly stick with is now hitting 275/319/374 at Richmond.  He has 1 3B, 2 HR and 31 2Bs.  Not a burner, he has 1 SB and 1 CS.  Some of my friends think he's going to be a stud, all-star type.  I see a guy who fits in with the team.  Yes, he should be able to hit, and the power will most likely fill in - that doesn't seem to be the issue.  But what they gave up with Duffy is a guy who can really, really pick it at 3B, and can run.  That running part of the game is underappreciated.  Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford didn't have huge numbers at Richmond, I wouldn't be concerned about these numbers.  But... Something tells me the Giants should have sold on Arroyo.

Ronnie Jebavy has got hot, he's overcome a bad bad juju start and is now hitting 260/320/403.  Not all is great, he leads the system in Ks with 121 (and in PAs with 484).  10 Hrs and 24/38 SB/CS.  That part along with the excellent defense is intriguing.  But the Ks and low BBs are a tough profile.

Chris Shaw in SJ: 285/357/544
Chris Shaw in RC: 234/285/400
Not everybody can Brandon Belt.

Dylan Davis in AUG: 288/368/496
Dylan Davis in SJ: 287/347/516
Giants slow play guys a lot of the time.  3rd year in pro ball from a major college program and just getting to High-A will get no attention from prospect watchers.  But... He's hitting well now.

Steven Duggar in SJ: 284/386/462
Steven Duggar in RC: 322/379/421
Well alright alright...

Hunter Cole is up to 272/328/437.

Giants have a lot of intriguing hitting depth in their system.

They did trade away a great follow in Bickford.  Don't feel like looking at pitching right now.